(forecast ¾”, actual up to 6”), the issue of how good forecasts can become local and/or national news (this year it is snowfall and icing in the Northeast and in the Carolinas). In this exercise we will take look at how good predictions are. To simplify the problem we will restrict ourselves to weather, and specifically temperature. To do this, you are asked to look up data (preferably at the same time of day each day) on one of two major national forecast services, Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com)* and the National Weather Service (www.noaa.gov)**, for seven to ten days to see how good our predictions for temperature are. The class will be split into four groups, half of the class will take each of these two services, and half of each of those will work with forecast high temperatures and half with forecast low temperatures. We are in a highly variable season, so the results may be quite different.
Procedure:
What you are doing is picking two dates and tracking what the forecasts are for those two days from (more or less) a week out and seeing how they turn out.
If you are unsure, this will be briefly explained in class on February 5 or e-mail the instructor or talk to the classroom assistant.
*Weather Underground (https://www.wunderground.com/us/mi/capital–city.html) provides forecast data for ten days into the future. The above link should come up “Capital City, MI.” Click on the tab labelled “10-DAY.” This will give you a graph with forecast temperatures by day at the top. Enter the forecast temperature (highs are in red and lows are in blue, as you have been assigned) for the dates you have selected on to the table on the attached page for those days. Because of the connection now between The Weather Channel and Weather Underground, the forecasts the two use are almost identical, so we will stick with just Weather Underground. WARNING: Use the link above. Entering Lansing for the location, usually gives you a private location. You want KLAN (airport) or Capital City Station as the location. I have also had issues with it defaulting to Capital, Costa Rica, so if you get tropical temperatures, something is wrong.
**NOAA. The National Weather Service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=–
84.61340620117186&lat=42.78305890174329) is the federal agency that monitors weather conditions and issues watches and warnings. The NOAA (NWS) site has forecast temperatures going out for seven days, including the day you look it up, so it only gives you 6 days into the future. At the top of the page it should start with “Current conditions at Capital Region International Airport (KLAN).” Immediately below is a block titled “Extended Forecast for Lansing, Capital City Airport MI.” A set of icons with temperatures below them give you the next 3½ to 4 days of high and low temperatures (unfortunately, they are given by day of week, not date, so you will need to convert). However, if you go further down to the “Detailed Forecast” text below the icons, you can get all six to seven days. Enter the forecast temperature (high or low as you have been assigned) from the text forecasts on to the table on the attached page for the dates selected. WARNING: Searching for the location from the NOAA home page will usually give you something in downtown Lansing. Use the link above. If that does not work, you can clock on the map next to the detailed forecast at the location of the airport.
Actual Temperatures. These will be posted (with up to a day delay) on D2L. WARNING: There can be one major point of confusion if you look up actual temperatures yourself. The low temperature will usually occur during the early morning. Usually a forecast gives the high for the day, and the low for the following night (but that is usually going to be after midnight so it will officially recorded on the following day). Depending your source and the time of day at which it occurs you may need to figure out what day the actual low temperature is for. The high is seldom ambiguous. I will post daytime high and nighttime low to avoid confusion; use my posts to avoid confusion.