Computational epidemiology

  1. Using an Excel spreadsheet, implement an example of the SIR model. To do so, you can reproduce a disease outbreak in a population with 600,000 individual and one initially infected (primary) case. Start with a transmission probability of .0000010 and a Infectious Period 1/γ is 5 days. Answer the following questions:

    How long does the outbreak under the initial conditions last?
    Are all individuals getting infected?
    How do you know that the epidemic has subsided?
    What do you observe when the infectious period is modified to 4 days? What do you observe when the infectious period is modified to 1 day? What are the effects of changing the transmission probability (i.e. β)?

  2.  Modify your SIR model in question 2 to integrate a latent period during which individuals are not infectious. Experiment with different latent periods (e.g. 1, 2, and 3 days) and describe your observation.
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