Evaluate alternative forecasting models
Suppose that you have become concerned about the amount of copier paper used in your office after repeatedly running out of supplies. Your assistant keeps track of the number of reams (packages of 500 sheets) for 24 weeks, as follows:
| Week: |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
| Reams of paper: |
232 |
263 |
271 |
248 |
235 |
261 |
207 |
243 |
237 |
293 |
243 |
260 |
| Week: |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| Reams of paper: |
253 |
270 |
230 |
253 |
238 |
272 |
222 |
243 |
289 |
238 |
262 |
234 |
a. Evaluate alternative forecasting models. Is a simple model or a trend or seasonally enhanced model better?
b. How could you use this information to solve the paper shortage problem?
